Windows 7 released today - It will be a bigger success than predicted

[CarlWohlforth]

The latest version of Windows was released today. It is faster and more robust than Vista was when it was released 3 years ago. Vista was not popular especially among large companies. The IT staffs almost universally recommended companies stick with XP. Windows XP was first released 8 years ago.

Vista had lots of visual improvements. I used it from the start and found it to be good, robust and feature rich. Corporations hated the fact that lots of legacy hardware and software didn't work with it especially at first. The ability of a new version of software or hardware to work with products made for previous versions is called backward compatibility. This is a good thing for developers because it locks in customers who don't have to upgrade everything just to get a new OS or computer. It is bad for developers because they are stuck supporting old and perhaps bad architectures. They have to live with and support old mistakes and limitations.  

Vista was a pretty new and better architecture, but it was significantly different. Microsoft didn't work with 3rd party vendors to make upgrades available at launch. So Vista got a bad reputation for not supporting printers, cameras and 3rd party software companies depended on to run their business.

Microsoft has a well deserved reputation of releasing overly complicated products with many bugs in them. Their customers learned to cope with this by waiting before purchasing any new release if they could. "Never buy the dot oh version" is common IT advice these days, kind of like "you never lose your job buying IBM" was good advice for an earlier generation.

Why is Windows 7 different and why will it surprise? Windows 7 hasn't changed much architecturally from Vista. The big change was already made during the Vista release. 3rd party vendors have had 3 years to support Vista (and therefore also W 7) and virtually all products work well with Vista now. So Windows 7 will work with most existing software and hardware. The only 3rd party products not supported today are likely to be so old they need replacing anyway. Vista's embarrassing lack of compatible drivers on day 1 is history.

XP popularized the practice of the automatic update. Vista ingrained the practice. Microsoft has learned how to roll out updates and fixes with a pretty low level of inconvenience. The incremental nature of the updates and increased testing makes them reliable and trusted. So waiting for a major "Service Pack" is no longer necessary. These days a service pack is just a collection of updates. So you can buy Windows 7 now and get fixes pretty much as soon as they are available. Many IT staffs don't accept this as fact yet, but they will.

Since 2/3rd of corporate computers still run XP there is a huge need to upgrade them all. With the average age of corporate computers higher than ever it makes sense to trash the computer and buy a replacement rather than try for an upgrade. A replacement is also much easier on the IT staff and the vast majority of integration problems are handled in advance by the manufacturer (HP, Dell). So they will skip Vista all together and go straight from XP to Windows 7.  It will be easier than ever before to justify buying new computers.

So we will have an upside surprise because:

• Windows 7 is friendlier, faster and nicer so consumers will want it and all new household computers will come with Windows 7 installed
• Windows 7 is faster, nicer and does not introduce new hardware requirements so there will be an actual upgrade market - both consumers and corporations will upgrade Vista machines
• Windows 7 has better power management and incorporates new touch and gesture interfaces for much better operation on laptops all of which will run Win 7 or the Mac OS
• There is a huge need to replace old computers - corporations have put off buying since Vista was introduced 3 years ago and delayed further due to the economic crises - XP computers will be replaced sooner and to a greater extent than predicted
• There is no need to wait for the 1st Service Pack - the upgrade cycle will start sooner than in the past
• The vast majority of 3rd party products are already supported

There you have it. Windows 7 will sell faster than predicted. Most corporations will jump on the bandwagon early 2010, not a year after that as many pundits suggest. Hardware sales will increase too.

[Tony Griffen]

Carl, I agree with you. I think there are a lot of people still stuck in the 32-bit world, like me. Very soon they will be looking to upgrade to a radically new hardware, and with it will come a new OS. This is a natural time for adoption of Windows 7. I know this is a strange thing to say for this old un*x diehard, but I am too old to be an ideologue. I will use whatever runs the apps I need. I play with operating systems at work.

BTW, do you know of good websites with reviews of serious desktops? I am not talking about your standard HP, Lenovo, or Dell, but small brands specializing in top quality components. I put my lat PC together too many years ago to attempt it again. I am no longer current in the latest hardware developments.

Cheers,

t.

[CarlWohlforth]

Thanks for joining Tony! It is great to see you post here.

I don't know of any website reviewing serious hardware. When I bought this one I did find several sites that discussed over clocking CPUs and using two graphics cards and so on. They were geared towards  gamers so maybe searching for a gamer site would be fruitful?

[Bubblehead]

 

Interesting, Carl.  Thanks for the background.  I will now search the BX aisles for a
new machine.  A machine with a Windows-7 brain.  My XP machine is nearly 6 years old, and getting tired..... Just like me...

   

[Tony Griffen]

I did find several sites that discussed over clocking CPUs and using two graphics cards and so on. They were geared towards  gamers so maybe searching for a gamer site would be fruitful?

Oh, no. That's a different definition of "serious hardware". I mean more like buttoned-up shirt hardware. Very conservative but top notch. No overclocking, but components that will perform and last at the same time. I find many of the popular name vendors to be cutting corners. I don't like that. I want to have a reserve in every component I buy, whether it be a power supply, fans, memory, and so on. I don't change my computers frequently. In fact, I rarely change them more often than once in 5-6 years, and I hate screwdrivers, so I don't want to have to upgrade a couple of years from now.

[CarlWohlforth]

I've been buying Dell computers. Every 3 or 4 years I buy the latest and greatest and hand my old one down the family food chain. I started buying Dell's when I worked for them and got an employee discount. Next time I'll probably look at them but feel good about HPs. I'm not sure about quality on any of them.

My philosophy is to buy a very large tower computer. The computer companies are trying to shrink everything. So there is usually lots of extra room in a big box. They don't have to push any edges. There is extra space so can use a larger, cheaper fan. They can use a larger, cheaper hard disk. They can space the boards out without worrying. This way I can get fast high capacity parts for a reasonable price. I think the big boxes stay cooler and last longer. I want a very fast computer but to get the fastest gear in a laptop really costs big bucks.

I guess if I retire and travel the country in an RV I'll need a laptop. If I get a job which requires mobile computer power and connectivity they can buy me an iPhone. Until then I'll stick with a big box and an even bigger monitor. 

Please update this thread with details on what you buy.

Bubblehead is replacing his 6 year old XP with a new computer soon too (keep us up to date on your purchase!). More support for my thesis.